Need to Understand the Trend Forecast model formulas in SOP

[former_member599284]

Hi

Actually we are planning to implement SOP in our organization i had gone through many blogs and can able to understand constant forecast model how the basic value calculated, MAD calculated , and EX-forecast value calculated but cant able to understand the Trend Model formula. Can any one help me to understand this below values.

Period taken is 12.2017 to 03.2018

forecast period is 12.2018 to 03.2019

Alpha= .20 beta =.20

the output came in the trend model is below

Basic Value = 59864.266 Trend =2933

MAD = 4807 Error Total = -4990

Period Org.HV cor.HV EX-Post-FV Org.FV Cor.FV

12.2017 47917 47917

01.2018 61689 61689

02.2018 54183 54183

03.2018 55872 55872 60862

04.2018 62798 62798

05.2018 65731 65731

Here i want to understand how the basic value is calculated , trend value calculated, MAD calculated and Error value calculated and (62798) org.FV for period 04.2018. Based on the Trend model initialization formulas i can able to understand the EX-Post-Fv value (60862) .

It will be very helpful if someone can make me understand how all values are calculated.

Regards

Praveen

[TrinhPhan]

Hi,

I have same question too. I really need to understand the trend forecast model.

Please help us explain this question.