IBP Ex-Post Forecast Horizont

[OliverA41]

Hello,

The EXPOST forecast divides the past horizon into two horizons. The first half is used to calculate the values and the second half to calculate the ExPOST forecast with these values. How can I adjust these two horizons in IBP?

[lingaiahvanam · Accepted solution]

Hi Oliver,

The ex-post forecast in the historical time bucket through the statistical model. The ex-post forecast is the output of the statistical forecast model in the history horizon while considering a part of the history for generating the forecast. Hence, it provides the opportunity to compare the forecasted value with the actual value, to compare the forecast errors, and to find the best fit model.

Ex-post forecast value updated based on statistical forecast model and history horizon and it is not possible to select the forecast horizon.

Best Regards,

Lingaiah

[OliverA41]

Hi Lingaiah,

thanks for the response. For me it is clear, what the ex-post methode is.

In the algorithm of the ex-post methode, the standard way is, that the horizont in the past will be devided in two parts.

In the first part, the algorithm will calculate the settings and values. In the second part, the system generate the forecast with different models and compare the results.

Now my question was, if it is possible in IBP, to customize, how long is the first part and how long is the second part

In other words, how many periods the algorithm used for calculate the setting (first part) and how many periods the system used for the second part.

Regards

Oliver