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Forecast model for intermittent time series

0 Kudos

Hi All,

need some suggestion on forecasting algorithm. Our client is into agri business and their products will be sold once or twice in a year. Just wanted to check what forecasting model is opt when the time series property is Intermittent or Insufficient data.

Thanks,

Divya

rajtiwari
Explorer

Hello Divya,

You should prefer to use the Seasonality Forecast Model -

  • Auto exponential smoothing if no external variant not applied. Best is SARIMA
  • SARIMAX - if External variant is applied.

In case ML Introduce then use - Gradient Boosting Forecast algorithm.

Thanks

Rajesh Tiwari

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Hi Rajesh,

Thanks for the response. we have not tried SARIMAX model. they are applying external variants, so will test this model.

Thanks again.

Regards,

Divya

Accepted Solutions (0)

Answers (1)

Answers (1)

former_member296874
Participant

Hello Divya,

You could consider Croston Method for products with intermittent demand.

Croston Method - SAP Help Portal

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Hi Abhinay,

Thanks for the quick response. we tried with croston method, forecast is too high compared with actuals, so checking other models.

Regards,

Divya