Forecast model for intermittent time series

[former_member752811]

Hi All,

need some suggestion on forecasting algorithm. Our client is into agri business and their products will be sold once or twice in a year. Just wanted to check what forecasting model is opt when the time series property is Intermittent or Insufficient data.

Thanks,

Divya

[rajtiwari]

Hello Divya,

You should prefer to use the Seasonality Forecast Model -

• Auto exponential smoothing if no external variant not applied. Best is SARIMA
• SARIMAX - if External variant is applied.

In case ML Introduce then use - Gradient Boosting Forecast algorithm.

Thanks

Rajesh Tiwari

[former_member752811]

Hi Rajesh,

Thanks for the response. we have not tried SARIMAX model. they are applying external variants, so will test this model.

Thanks again.

Regards,

Divya

[former_member296874]

Hello Divya,

You could consider Croston Method for products with intermittent demand.

Croston Method - SAP Help Portal

[former_member752811]

Hi Abhinay,

Thanks for the quick response. we tried with croston method, forecast is too high compared with actuals, so checking other models.

Regards,

Divya